The Golden State Warriors hold a 3-1 series lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals, an edge no team has surrendered in the history of the league. Draymond Green’s “unnecessary contact with a retaliatory swipe” at LeBron James’s groin in Game 4, however, earned him a Flagrant-one foul, making him unavailable for Game 5 of the series. An absence that might just give the Cavs a chance to keep the series interesting.
It’s no secret how important Green is to Golden State’s performance. When he has been on the court this postseason, the Warriors have outscored opponents by 11.6 net points per 100 possessions. They have been outscored by 1.3 net points per 100 when their versatile center has been on the bench. In the Finals those numbers are plus-13.6 and minus-9.6, respectively.
Draymond Green has Warriors' best +/- during 2016 playoffs (+7.3). He ranks 2nd to LeBron James (+166) in raw +/- during playoffs (+153).
— Ben Golliver (@BenGolliver) June 12, 2016Most affected by Green’s absence will be the Splash Brothers, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, who have played 2,346 minutes with Green during the regular season and playoffs combined. Curry and Thompson have spent just 188 minutes on the court without Green, and in that span, the team has scored 114.6 points per 100 possessions with an effective field goal percentage of 56.9 percent. Strong numbers to be sure, but still lower than when they all are on the court at the same time (119.4 offensive rating with a 59.7 eFG%). In the Finals, the Cavs are allowing 120.9 points per 100 possessions in their losses to the Warriors, while holding Golden State to 96.1 points per 100 possessions in Cleveland’s sole victory.
The biggest adjustment for Coach Steve Kerr in Game 5 is replacing Green’s ability to defend bigger opponents, while still retaining the team’s ability to move the ball efficiently and space the floor. Green is 7 for 22 on three-point shots and leads the team with 65.8 passes per game in this series, 22 more than Curry.
On defense, Green has held opponents to 35.8 percent shooting on their jump shots and 36.8 percent shooting around the rim, routinely switching on defense when needed.
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Green’s suspension also takes away Kerr’s not-so-secret weapon, the small ball of death lineup, which featured Green at center alongside Curry, Thompson, Andre Iguodala and Harrison Barnes. This lineup had been the Warriors’ third-most used lineup during the regular season, logging 172 minutes and outscoring opponents by 47 net points per 100 possessions. In the NBA Finals it has been used the second most often (29 minutes), producing a net rating of 14.1. The most used lineup against Cleveland in the Finals, which replaces Iguodala for Andrew Bogut, has a minus-19.7 net rating.
“I’m disappointed for him that he can’t play in a big game,” Kerr said. “But the ruling has been made, and we’ve got to move on.”
It’s likely Kerr goes with a “modified smallball unit featuring Andrew Bogut at center,” a lineup that has played 24 total minutes this year, surrendering 114 points per 100 possessions. With Green on the court, the Warriors had a 100.4 defensive rating.
James McAdoo could also get more playing time, and is perhaps a good stopgap for Green defensively, having been on the court for 101.9 points per 100 possessions against this postseason. However, he adds none of Green’s offensive ability: the team produces 97 points per 100 possession with him on the court.
Marreese Speights is another option, but the team’s effective field goal percentage drops to 49.7 percent with him on the court, the biggest drag on the squad aside from Ian Clark (49.4 team eFG%).
“We’re going to play a lot of people and we’ll give a lot of different looks and compete like crazy to give ourselves a chance to win the game,” Kerr explained at Sunday’s practice.
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